Going by the numbers –
Polls and Your Campaign

As a candidate, officeholder, or opinion-leader, it is important to understand that a poll is a tool.  It is a measure, not a determinant, of public opinion.  In modern politics, where it seems like polls are released every day, there is too often a tendency to look to the numbers for direction and message and strategy, leading to reaction rather than leadership.

Opinion in America is very, very dynamic.  It changes, sometimes very quickly and in vast shifts.  Polls results are static, snapshots of opinion frozen in time.  They have their uses and are, indeed, a necessary and helpful part of any candidate’s or issue-focused campaign.

Poll results need to be examined with a critical eye.  You need to look at the methodology, survey size, sponsorship, and other elements of a poll to decide if the results have validity for you and your efforts.  You need to be a critical and effective consumer of the information the polls provide.

Here are some questions to think about when evaluating polling data:

   1.   Who conducted the poll?  A reputable, independent firm, an independent firm known for partisan bias, a newspaper, television station, campaign or someone else?

   2.   Who sponsored or commissioned the poll?  Do they have an agenda?  What is it?

   3.   Can you see the questions? Are these questions relevant to your district? (i.e. The preferences of Americans for white or wheat bread is probably not useful in a county commissioner race.)

   4.   What was the size of the sample?  Is it sufficient to produce relevant data for the community being surveyed – 1,000 people being the industry standard for a national survey, 350 people for a local or Congressional survey?  What is the margin of error?

   5.   How was the sample determined?  Was it a random sample or a sample from among a pre-selected group or groups of people? Were responses “weighted” to make the sample “more reflective of the community?”  What were the criteria, if any, for “weighting” a response?

   6.   Were the questions fairly worded and in reasonable order?  Was the order of the answer choices rotated during the survey so that each respondent had a chance for a different first option?  How were the open-ended answers evaluated?

   7.   Are the results presented in context, taking into account previous polls results and trend data? Is this data in line with other poll results or does it stick out?

   8.   Instinctively, do the responses make sense?